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Post by rockjunquie on Apr 4, 2020 6:40:31 GMT -5
Good question. Might be easier to identify supply chains that are still intact. The problems will become clear 1-3 months after there is a shutdown somewhere. Right now, that focus is on China. The processes most affected have been running on a just in time inventory system. A good example is automotive (or big box retailers). On top of that, some counties are stopping export of goods they deem critical (US stopping export of masks (including into Canada), India stopping pharmacy exports ...). Apparently cargo containers are stacked up in China causing a worldwide shortage for transport of goods from anywhere. The current media focus is on TP, food, personal protection and soon pharmacy. They are not explaining the pending tsunami (my thinking) related to general goods, maybe to avoid more panic. With the demand and supply shortages, plus financial issues, it may become difficult to restart things in a timely fashion. If the US dollar fails( which it hasn't yet), then ongoing international trade for the foreseeable future is hamstrung. Remember, the US is spending trillions that it doesn't have and worldwide production of all goods has basically stopped. And I could be completely wrong and over-reacting. In which case, I have bought for myself a few extra things now, that I will consume later. However, If I am correct...then I am not competing with all of the others who left things too late. The problem always is - nobody knows it until everybody knows. Yet, looking back, it is kinda obvious. I realize that not everybody has the cash to prepare and many will be hurt if things get worse. I have been doing some really uncomfortable things such as selling equites in Jan. Buying gold and oil on the major dips. On the other hand, I am up 20% by trying to predict, based on what makes sense to me and not running with the herd and certainly not paying attention to the media. I do this to protect my family and our future. Soon I think the best any of us can do is not to lose relative to everything else. At the end of the day, if we survive then that is success. Hope that makes sense. You can google to see what is being said about supply chain, but here is a link to get started: www.entrepreneur.com/article/348081Greig One example- Stihl is a German company with a major plant in the US. (It is an international company.) Early on, the US plant (VA BCH) had to add shifts because the Chinese were too sick too work. Now, they are short of the parts that China and other places made. So, between the time the people couldn't work because of sickness and now, no parts were being made. They have been using what was in warehouses. Some point soon, they will have to start shutting down lines until the warehouses are full again. THAT is when DH expects to be laid off.
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Post by fernwood on Apr 4, 2020 11:26:31 GMT -5
Thought on some things.
A good friend has a bidet with a dryer.
Garden seeds are becoming in short supply here. Planting season is about 1.5 months away for some that can no longer be found.
Agree on supply chain. Even products that are made in the USA often use imported parts.
Needed household items. Agree with having extras on hand. I always have a couple dozen batteries in various sizes. Was able to exchange 2 dozen incandescent light bulbs for LED bulbs last year. Have only used 5 of them so far. Duck tape is a needed item. Zip ties come in handy too. Motor oil is a must. Original version of JB Weld. That stuff is awesome. Silicon spray. Any spare parts/hardware you feel might be needed. Think about what you could not live without and purchase some of those items if you do not have them.
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Post by aDave on Apr 4, 2020 11:28:32 GMT -5
Good question. Might be easier to identify supply chains that are still intact. The problems will become clear 1-3 months after there is a shutdown somewhere. Right now, that focus is on China. The processes most affected have been running on a just in time inventory system. A good example is automotive (or big box retailers). On top of that, some counties are stopping export of goods they deem critical (US stopping export of masks (including into Canada), India stopping pharmacy exports ...). Apparently cargo containers are stacked up in China causing a worldwide shortage for transport of goods from anywhere. The current media focus is on TP, food, personal protection and soon pharmacy. They are not explaining the pending tsunami (my thinking) related to general goods, maybe to avoid more panic. With the demand and supply shortages, plus financial issues, it may become difficult to restart things in a timely fashion. If the US dollar fails( which it hasn't yet), then ongoing international trade for the foreseeable future is hamstrung. Remember, the US is spending trillions that it doesn't have and worldwide production of all goods has basically stopped. And I could be completely wrong and over-reacting. In which case, I have bought for myself a few extra things now, that I will consume later. However, If I am correct...then I am not competing with all of the others who left things too late. The problem always is - nobody knows it until everybody knows. Yet, looking back, it is kinda obvious. I realize that not everybody has the cash to prepare and many will be hurt if things get worse. I have been doing some really uncomfortable things such as selling equites in Jan. Buying gold and oil on the major dips. On the other hand, I am up 20% by trying to predict, based on what makes sense to me and not running with the herd and certainly not paying attention to the media. I do this to protect my family and our future. Soon I think the best any of us can do is not to lose relative to everything else. At the end of the day, if we survive then that is success. Hope that makes sense. You can google to see what is being said about supply chain, but here is a link to get started: www.entrepreneur.com/article/348081Greig Very informative and an interesting perspective. Lots to think about. Thanks very much.
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RWA3006
Cave Dweller
Member since March 2009
Posts: 4,125
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Post by RWA3006 on Apr 4, 2020 22:10:07 GMT -5
Now, more food for thought if you like to be prepared... Supply chains are broken, so there may be issues later in the year whereby some items will be impossible to find or limited quantities at much higher prices. What supply chains are broken? Would you care to elaborate? I'm not asking to be argumentative. I'm curious as to your rationale for making such a comment. Some broken, some bogged down in inefficient logistics. I'm starting to see some things happening that have been historically outside our collective psyche. Some background: I used to be upper management over several Home Depot stores. Retired from that a couple decades ago, but have stayed in touch with former colleagues and occasionally compare notes. I'm also pals with current store directors of a Smiths grocery, another independent grocery store, and owner of a large Ace Hardware store. I feel I have my finger on the pulse through these guys. The consensus of my retail group is they are having a hard time getting what they need and availability of critical supplies is very iffy. The typical grocery store has on average no more than three days of food inside the store at any one time and for the last three weeks one grocery has been getting less than 60% fill rate on the items they have ordered. Today, the owner of the Ace told me he has not been able to get masks, sanitizer, toilet paper, alcohol, etc. for a month. Many don't know that Ace has more buying power than either Home Depot or Lowes due to so many franchises scattered about. Many items are available, but logistics in transportation are sometimes the weak link. Here in Utah the DOT eased up the maximum consecutive hours drivers are permitted to drive and now there are more sleep deprived drivers on the road trying to meet demand. And just yesterday another link in our state's supply chain was altered which theoretically diminished it by 50%. What was it? Something I had never thought of .... Stores are now required to limit customers inside the store to 50% of what fire code previously allowed. So now there are huge lines outside the stores where a customer is only allowed inside when another customer just exited. Stores could handle double the numbers but are not allowed to do so because of social distancing needs. Who would have predicted that? What I'm seeing is our supply chain is similar to an actual chain which is no stronger than it's weakest link.
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Post by stardiamond on Apr 6, 2020 17:20:31 GMT -5
My son returned from Costco and was unable to get salted butter, raspberries, Danish ham, paper towels and sliced French bread. In addition he couldn't get disinfectant wipes which was a long shot He did show up with a fifteen pound bag of brown rice for $15 (the last one and he had to beat out an older lady). I just bought a 2 pound bag on ebay for a little more than that and was lucky to get it. Meat and dairy hasn't been an issue
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Post by parfive on Apr 8, 2020 1:37:14 GMT -5
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Post by fernwood on Apr 8, 2020 2:16:23 GMT -5
While not essential for all, I find this interesting.
Two local breweries are offering take out sales. They are going about it in very different ways.
Place 1: Doors are open. Offering pre-packaged bottles/cans and growler fills. You can bring your own growler or purchase one of theirs. Selling branded merchandise. Selling gift cards. Accepting credit cards, gift cards and cash. State they are disinfecting the bar top and all items used for sales after each customer. Listing their daily offerings on Facebook.
Place 2: No customers allowed in building. Sales of beer (bottles/cans) and gift cards only. Filling only new growlers. Filling crowlers. Customers place their order and pay via phone. Call when they arrive for pick up. Purchases are placed on a table just outside the door. Listing daily offerings on Facebook. Have a chalkboard outside of building with info.
Which place would you rather purchase items from?
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Post by knave on Apr 8, 2020 8:55:53 GMT -5
One is better social and mentally, the other is better for health.
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Post by aDave on Apr 8, 2020 12:43:15 GMT -5
I actually read the article this morning before checking in here and found it well written and very informative. I was going to share it as well, but you beat me to the punch.
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Post by knave on Apr 8, 2020 13:20:17 GMT -5
I haven't seen a recent RTH thread on pandemic prep., so this might be timely. I have gathered a few extra things. I live in the countryside but Toronto is not far away. If I don't need some of these supplies because nothing bad happens then I can use them later or take camping when the weather warms up a bit. I don't need water, because I am on a well or can get it from a spring. Heck, I can also catch fish, snare or hunt if it comes to that. You can live on water only for a long while and can survive almost forever with just meat and fat, but I like my carbs and my job #1 is to think ahead and take care of my family. I have already my garden seeds. I will try to keep up with fresh staples (eggs, milk, veggies, etc) as best I can. These will be the first things to run out. My worry is an area lockdown, like we now see in north Italy (where they stop cars from leaving a quarantine area and the store shelves quickly empty). Looks like everybody needs to be self sufficient for at least a month, but 3-6 months is better. If you prepare early, you are helping others by not needing to join them in a panic or fighting over the last can of soup in the store. This is not a bug out situation. I expect power and communications to continue. Here is some of my extra prep (done), in no particular order. I believe the trick is to buy extra of what you normally eat anyway. This list might help somebody with their own list: Cash Big Bag(s) of Rice Dry Pasta Dry mushroom, dry meats , chips, etc Dry beans & peas, various kinds of canned chili beans, canned baked beans , etc Bottles of Pickles. Sauerkraut, kale. Shelf milk (good for 6 months without fridge) Shelf fruit juice Pasta sauce..... Get a flu shot if you don't have one. Won't stop Coronavirus, but you sure don't need both at the same time. Good luck everybody. We will get thru whatever might happen, as long as people generally behave and help their neighbours. greig I have to say, I’ve never experienced anything like a lockdown before. When I first saw this thread, I put it in the “prepper” category. (like closets filled with nonperishables from the 90’s) Nothing wrong with it at all but I haven’t viewed it as a high priority. Shortage of groceries is not something I’ve experienced at all, prior to this. When I saw this thread again today, it struck me how you had started this discussion long before the mandatory stay-at-home orders and TP rationing. Very fortunate the stores are still supplied with food for the most part, may have to buy a specialty brand or such. But now we’re hearing of deeper supply chain disruption and future possible shortages. Who know when “normal” will return, but I’m sure the circle of ripples from this event will be felt for a long time. Maybe we’ll even get some “COVID era” values to pass on to our children
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Post by joshuamcduffie on Apr 8, 2020 13:37:32 GMT -5
Andy Dufresne: I understand you're a man who knows how to get things. Red: Yeah, I've been known to locate certain things from time to time.
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Post by RocksInNJ on Apr 8, 2020 20:32:13 GMT -5
It’s getting worse here I need New Jersey and they’re saying still another 3 weeks or so before it even peaks out. Groceries are a nightmare. Everything is empty and most everything is limited to how many you can buy. I heard today that they just passed a law that everyone must be wearing a mask in order to enter any establishment.
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Post by joshuamcduffie on Apr 8, 2020 20:40:24 GMT -5
It’s getting worse here I need New Jersey and they’re saying still another 3 weeks or so before it even peaks out. Groceries are a nightmare. Everything is empty and most everything is limited to how many you can buy. I heard today that they just passed a law that everyone must be wearing a mask in order to enter any establishment. Maybe you guys are just ahead of us, but it’s not like that at all here. A few things are out, but most everything is still available. I’m masked when I go in public, as of today, but most folks still aren’t. Stores aren’t busy, most everyone is staying home. Business is booming at Lowe’s and Home Depot. Everyone’s doing their long put-off projects in their at home time. Did the yard, flower beds and built a garden last weekend. I guess I’ll repaint the kitchen this weekend. Why not?
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Post by fernwood on Apr 9, 2020 4:07:23 GMT -5
Wisconsin is encouraging masks for all when in public. Gloves are also encouraged Some stores are limiting purchases to 2-3 of each item. Dry milk is almost nonexistent. Eggs are in short supply and expensive. TP, paper towels and tissues are sporadic. Bleach is tough to find, as are sanitizing wipes, spray sanitizer and bottled sanitizer. Masks/disposable gloves are in short supply. Establishments who have them are encouraged to donate to local heath care, police, fire and care facilities. There is a large group of people using the new CDC guidelines to make cloth masks. They are averaging about 2000 masks distributed daily. Everclear Liquor is also a shortage. People are using it to make hand sanitizer. USPS Mail is often delayed. This surfaced when many residents did not receive absentee ballots. Some local clerks said the ballots had been mailed 5-7 days ago, but they were never received.
The Wisconsin Veterans Home in King, WI, has been hard hit. They are one of three Veterans homes run by the Wisconsin Department of Veterans Affairs. The King location has been serving Veterans and their spouses for over 130 years. The campus has many buildings and is located on 42 acres. I have volunteered there in the past. Whenever someone passed away, the 100+ year old bell would be rung in their honor. Everyone knew what the sound of the bell meant. All would stop what they were doing to pay respect. Even some with advanced dementia knew what the bell meant. At King, they are in desperate need of disposable masks and gloves. The DVA has been unable to supply any for a couple of weeks. A desperate plea was recently sent out for supplies.
Some people are taking the safer at home orders seriously, some are not. Trips to big box home improvement stores are to be for emergencies only. Local municipalities are telling people to wait on purchasing supplies for all of those projects one meant to get to. Unless they are emergency repairs. Many local contractors are only performing emergency jobs. People are encouraged to limit shopping trips to once per week at the most. Bring a list if going in the store. Utilize ordering by phone/internet or curbside pick up. Pay online. Children under the age of 16 are prohibited in some stores. More stores are being forced to shut down. Some are being fined as being open when they are not considered essential. Many businesses have decided to shut down to protect their employees. This includes vision and hearing facilities. Chiropractic providers. Some other specialty medical providers such as physical therapy clinics. Wish I would have thought to get an eye exam and new glasses (or parts for my present glasses) at the start of all of this. Also to purchase some needed medications, as I no longer can get those.
I find it interesting that things are so different from state to state. Even within specific states, it varies on what people are being told to do. What supplies are available.
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Post by Peruano on Apr 9, 2020 6:34:27 GMT -5
I had a chance to pay it back to the front line folks at one of our local hospitals. A box of medical masks that I bought at Habitat for Humanities ReStore several years ago, turned out to be N95 masks with expired dates. A nurse supervisor (friend) told me that they were reusing / resterilizing masks because of short supply. I provided him 140 masks after his administration OK'd their use under the circumstances. I'll use dust masks or the civilian forms of mask protection and was pleased that my bargain hoard of better masks went to a better use than my trim saw activity.
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Post by rockjunquie on Apr 9, 2020 6:53:12 GMT -5
I had a chance to pay it back to the front line folks at one of our local hospitals. A box of medical masks that I bought at Habitat for Humanities ReStore several years ago, turned out to be N95 masks with expired dates. A nurse supervisor (friend) told me that they were reusing / resterilizing masks because of short supply. I provided him 140 masks after his administration OK'd their use under the circumstances. I'll use dust masks or the civilian forms of mask protection and was pleased that my bargain hoard of better masks went to a better use than my trim saw activity. Good for you! I know they are happy.
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Post by greig on Apr 9, 2020 11:04:31 GMT -5
I bought quite a few N95s at Home Depot in Jan when the shelves were full. I kept 6 and donated the rest to our local hospital. They are in sealed packages. My wife refuses to wear the N95s because people are making comments that all should be given to the health care workers.
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EricD
Cave Dweller
High in the Mountains
Member since November 2019
Posts: 1,142
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Post by EricD on Apr 9, 2020 11:20:59 GMT -5
I have some P95's that the pre-filters are full of fiberglass and primer/paint dust. Still work as designed and nobody would give me any sh!t for keeping them for myself. I bought them for doing gelcoat and polyurethane on my boat which requires a mask that will filter organic vapors.
Mine are far from this clean:
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Post by fernwood on Apr 9, 2020 11:53:56 GMT -5
Peruano Thank you for donating the masks.
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Post by fernwood on Apr 9, 2020 12:07:48 GMT -5
A good friend is making some unique masks for friends and family. . She found the pattern buried on the WHO web sight The masks are fairly large. Go under the chin.
They are two layers of cotton fabric with a velcro closed pocket. A heppa filter can be placed in the pocket. My friend found a bunch of heppa vacuum bags on clearance at the local hardware store. They have pockets for two removable pieces of wire by the nose. She used pipe cleaners.
It took her about 1.5 hours to make the first one, but she is getting faster. She also added some padding to the elastic that goes behind the ears.
She is a special ed. teacher's aide and has been waiting over 3 weeks for her first unemployment check.
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